Solar-Panel Makers Gain as Fukushima Spurs Japan's Anti-Nuclear Movement

Akiko Hirai says the Hamaoka power station 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) from home evokes such dread of the crippled Fukushima plant that she would spend $6,000 installing solar panels if it helped make Japan nuclear free.

“Who can really guarantee that they’re 100 percent safe? I want nuclear plants to be halted if they’re so frail,” said the 53-year-old housewife, who’s lived in Shizuoka prefecture in central Japan, for more than 20 years. “It’s not that I’m worried about myself, it’s my daughter and other small children I’m concerned about.”

Hirai helps illustrate Japan’s growing anti-nuclear movement in the wake of the world’s biggest nuclear accident since Chernobyl. That’s creating an opportunity for makers of solar equipment such as Panasonic Corp. (6752) and Sharp Corp. to capitalize on orders that analysts estimate may exceed $100 billion over the next decade, bringing down costs for consumers.

“It’s become clear we can’t keep relying on nuclear power or fossil fuels,” said Koji Toda, chief fund manager at Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “Still, solar power is too expensive for the market to bloom without subsidies. It’s easy to agree on the big picture but not so easy to determine who pays the price.”

Toshiba Corp. (6502) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501), Japan’s two largest makers of nuclear reactors, have underperformed Japan’s Topix index, while shares of Panasonic and Sharp have outperformed the benchmark since last month’s natural disaster.
Japan’s Power Plan

Last June, Japan laid out plans to build nine atomic reactors by 2020 and at least five more the following decade to increase the nation’s portion of nuclear energy to 50 percent of overall power generation by 2030 from 29 percent in 2009. Prime Minister Naoto Kan said March 31 the country needs to revise those policies.

That means Japan will probably step up a campaign to encourage the use of solar cells for years at the expense of atomic power, Takashi Watanabe, a Tokyo-based analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in an April 1 report. Solar may be the strongest option because of restrictions on where wind and thermoelectric power stations can be built, he said.

Replacing the proposed nuclear plants with solar ones would need 108 gigawatts of photovoltaic generation by 2020, according to Goldman. Based on the current estimated costs of solar cells, that capacity would cost more than $150 billion.

Solar panel prices will likely fall to $1.50 per watt in the second half of 2011 compared with about $1.80 in 2010, Jenny Chase, a solar analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said March 29.
Japanese Beneficiaries

Panasonic and Sharp, Japan’s biggest maker of solar panels, would benefit from increased domestic adoption of solar power as the companies earn about half of their solar-panel revenue from Japan, Watanabe said. The strength of their brands and relations with home builders would also help the Japanese companies over Chinese solar companies, he said. Sharp spokeswoman Miyuki Nakayama declined to comment.

“Interest in solar power and other alternative energy sources will probably rise further,” said Akihiko Oiwa, a spokesman for Sanyo Electric Co., Panasonic’s solar-panel unit. “Although they’re unlikely to replace nuclear energy right away, solar and other alternative energies will likely supplement existing power facilities.”

Politicians may help. Governor Yuji Kuroiwa held a 90- centimeter (3 foot) solar panel on the streets of Kanagawa prefecture this month as he pledged to install solar panels to support as many as 2 million households. Kanagawa, located south of Tokyo, will “kick off the revolution” to end Japan’s dependency on nuclear power, Kuroiwa said April 11, the day after the former journalist drew twice as many votes as his opponent in the election.
Insecurity

On the same day in Shizuoka prefecture, Governor Heita Kawakatsu said he aims to make Shizuoka the top municipality in terms of rate of solar panel usage. Kawakatsu plans to reduce Shizuoka’s reliance on nuclear energy from 80 percent by providing subsidies for consumers and funding research that could improve the efficiency of photovoltaic power.

“I’ve never felt such insecurity before,” said Tamako Sato, a 69-year-old housewife who lives in Kashiwazaki city, where the world’s biggest nuclear plant is located. “I want the plant to be out of the town.”

Reactors at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant have been halted since an earthquake hit the plant in 2007 and caused radiation to leak.